MEASURING THE MARGINAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE WARMING ON WHEAT IN CHINA’S HUANG-HUAI-HAI REGION AND RESPONSIVE MEASURES

Abstract

Climate is the precondition for agricultural production. Climate warming is the most striking characteristic of changes in global climate and has an important effect on grain production. Based on wheat production and meteorological data in the Huang-Huai-Hai region spanning from 2000 to 2020, we apply the MO-OLS model to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of climate warming on regional wheat yield per unit area; then, using the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of climate warming as the explained variable, we utilized a series of explanatory variables to regress the influencing factors. This research shows: 1) the marginal effects of climate warming on wheat yield per unit area is generally negative and exhibits spatiotemporal differences, that is, higher latitude regions are less negatively affected by climate warming; 2) the development in crop diversity and industrialization exacerbate the marginal effects of climate warming, while improvements in urbanization, construction of irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure and intensity of fertilizer application weaken the marginal effects of climate warming. Based on empirical results, we propose policy suggestions like enhancing guidance on agroecological technologies, increasing the level of mechanization of agricultural production and stepping up the construction of agricultural infrastructure.